Is it the same bet on Kalshi and Polymarket?
The same event is often listed on both venues. Whether it is the same bet depends on the fine print — the settlement source, what happens if the data is late, how the number is rounded. Every page here compares the two venues' own published terms for one matched pair, using a deterministic rule check, and shows the live price and fee on each side.
Tracking 50 pairs right now; 0 verify as the same bet. No picks, no predictions — just what each venue says it will do.
Regulation, funding, fees, settlement, taxes — sourced, no opinions.
Both venues' exact published formulas at any price.
Three real cases where identical-looking contracts paid differently.
Court orders, cease-and-desists, and rulings, sourced.
What forms each venue sends, and what practitioners say about reporting.
Guides
- Kalshi vs Polymarket, side by side
- Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage: we measured it
- Kalshi referral code: how the program works
- Polymarket referral code: what it pays
- Is Kalshi legit? The documented record
- Is Polymarket legit? The documented record
CPI inflation, year over year
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in December 2026 | Not verified | global only |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in December 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Core CPI, month over month
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in October | Not verified | global only |
Fed rate decisions
House control 2026
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the House in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
| Will Republicans win the House in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
ISM Manufacturing PMI
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in Oct 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Nonfarm payrolls
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026 | Not verified | US |
Real GDP growth
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | US |
| Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Senate control 2026
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
| Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026 | Not verified | global only |
Unemployment rate
| Pair | Verdict | Tradeable |
|---|---|---|
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in October | Not verified | US |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October | Not verified | global only |
Recently closed
No longer quoted; kept as a record of the rules comparison.