Fed rate decisions

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting

Last checked 2026-10-19 10:59 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.

SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. Polymarket's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.

Venue	Contract	YES price	Taker fee at that price
Kalshi	Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-C25 Open on Kalshi	2¢	1.0¢
Polymarket US	25 bps Decrease polymarket_us:rdc-usfed-fomc-2026-12-09-cut25 Open on Polymarket US	3¢	0.2¢

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 142.3 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: C (65/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

Polymarket fine-print grade: D (45/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

What Kalshi publishes

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.