Same bet or not?

About

This site is one person's project, generated by software they wrote, published because the answer it gives — "usually not the same bet" — was worth sharing.

Who. Omar (GitHub: omac049), a marketing-analytics professional. Not affiliated with, employed by, or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. Not a lawyer, accountant, or financial adviser.

What. Over six weeks in 2026 I tested four ideas for making money in prediction markets, with pass/fail thresholds fixed before looking at data. All four failed, and the write-ups are public. What survived was the instrument: a deterministic checker that reads both venues' rulebooks and says whether two contracts actually settle the same way. This site publishes what it finds, every night.

Corrections. If a page is wrong — a rule text out of date, a fee formula changed, a legal status moved — open an issue at https://github.com/omac049/atlas/issues. Every claim on a pillar page carries a source; a correction that cites a better one is applied.

Money. The site may earn referral revenue, disclosed on every page. Referral relationships never change a verdict, a price, or a fee; those come from the venues' own published data and the method is public.

How the pages are made →