Fed rate decisions
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting
Last checked 2026-09-04 21:13 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.
Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.
SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH— both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge. Kalshi's fine print: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.
The Polymarket leg here is the global venue, which US accounts cannot trade; it is shown for the rules comparison only.
| Venue | Contract | YES price | Taker fee at that price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | 43¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Polymarket (global) | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? polymarket_global:3215008 | 45¢ | set per market |
YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.
Capital lock-up: about 186.9 days until the later of the two contracts settles.
Kalshi fine-print grade: B (85/100)
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
What Kalshi publishes
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
What Polymarket publishes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.