Same bet or not?

Unemployment rate

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October

Last checked 2026-10-19 10:53 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.
In plain words. Where they differ: one contract pays on 'above' and the other on 'at or below' the same number; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome; the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No. Polymarket's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.
VenueContractYES priceTaker fee at that price
KalshiWill the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October?
kalshi:KXU3-26OCT-T3.8
99¢1.0¢
Polymarket US3.8%
polymarket_us:unrtc-usunemp-sa-lw-yr-2026-12-31-lte3pt8
14¢0.7¢

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 109.2 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: F (35/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
−10 MISSING_NEGATIVE_BRANCH: the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No

Polymarket fine-print grade: C (60/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place

What Kalshi publishes

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for any month from October 2026 through December 2026 is less than or equal to 3.8%. Outcome sourced from BLS. This market settles based on the Employment Situation Report releases published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish complete data for the specified period by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the data published up to that point. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20UNRTC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf