Unemployment rate

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in September

Last checked 2026-09-04 21:13 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.

SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
THRESHOLD_OPERATOR_MISMATCH — one contract pays on 'above' and the other on 'at or below' the same number
REVISION_POLICY_MISMATCH — the venues publish different rules about data revisions
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; one contract pays on 'above' and the other on 'at or below' the same number; the venues publish different rules about data revisions; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome; the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.

The Polymarket leg here is the global venue, which US accounts cannot trade; it is shown for the rules comparison only.

Venue	Contract	YES price	Taker fee at that price
Kalshi	Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in September? kalshi:KXU3-26SEP-T3.8 Open on Kalshi	91¢	1.0¢
Polymarket (global)	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%? polymarket_global:4217153 Open on Polymarket (global)	37¢	set per market

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 118.7 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: F (35/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
−10 MISSING_NEGATIVE_BRANCH: the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No

What Kalshi publishes

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.