Real GDP growth

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026

Last checked 2026-09-04 21:13 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.

SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
REVISION_POLICY_MISMATCH — the venues publish different rules about data revisions
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; the venues publish different rules about data revisions; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome; the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No. Polymarket's fine print: the rules name more than one authoritative source, and those sources can disagree with each other; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.

Venue	Contract	YES price	Taker fee at that price
Kalshi	Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026? kalshi:KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.0 Open on Kalshi	88¢	1.0¢
Polymarket US	Above 1.0% polymarket_us:gdpc-us-saa-q3-2026-10-29-gt1pt0 Open on Polymarket US	88¢	0.6¢

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 146.7 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: F (35/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
−10 MISSING_NEGATIVE_BRANCH: the rules say what settles the contract Yes but never state what settles it No

Polymarket fine-print grade: C (60/100)
−20 CONFLICTING_AUTHORITATIVE_SOURCE: the rules name more than one authoritative source, and those sources can disagree with each other
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place

What Kalshi publishes

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2026 is above 1.0%. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Settlement is based on the Advance Estimate GDP release published by the BEA, currently scheduled for October 29, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the figure is not published on the scheduled date, the first officially published Q3 2026 figure will be used. If no qualifying GDP figure is released within three months of the Advance Estimate GDP scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous quarter with available data.