Nonfarm payrolls

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will above -100000 jobs be added in August 2026

Last checked 2026-09-04 12:28 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.

SIGNED_LINE_MISMATCH — the contracts sit on different lines
SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
REVISION_POLICY_MISMATCH — the venues publish different rules about data revisions
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

In plain words. Where they differ: the contracts sit on different lines; both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; the venues publish different rules about data revisions; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. Polymarket's fine print: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.

Venue	Contract	YES price	Taker fee at that price
Kalshi	Will above -100000 jobs be added in August 2026? kalshi:KXPAYROLLS-26AUG-T-100000 Open on Kalshi	100¢	—
Polymarket US	Above -100,000 polymarket_us:nfpc-usnfp-sa-august-2026-09-04-gtneg100k	—	—

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 91.1 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: D (45/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

Polymarket fine-print grade: B (80/100)
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place

What Kalshi publishes

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -100000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026 is above -100,000. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on September 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying change in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous month with available data.