Fed rate decisions

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting

Last checked 2026-09-04 21:13 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.

Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.

SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH — both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge
SETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN — the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)

In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. Polymarket's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.

Venue	Contract	YES price	Taker fee at that price
Kalshi	Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 Open on Kalshi	27¢	2.0¢
Polymarket US	25 bps Increase polymarket_us:rdc-usfed-fomc-2026-10-28-hike25 Open on Polymarket US	28¢	1.2¢

YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.

Capital lock-up: about 144.9 days until the later of the two contracts settles.

Kalshi fine-print grade: B (85/100)
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

Polymarket fine-print grade: D (45/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−20 MISSING_CANCELLATION_POLICY: the rules never say what happens to open positions if the event is canceled, voided, or never takes place
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome

What Kalshi publishes

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

What Polymarket publishes

This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.