Fed rate decisions
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting
Last checked 2026-10-19 10:59 UTC. Prices move constantly; the rules comparison is the durable part.
Not verified as the same bet. The venues' published terms differ in ways that could settle differently.
SETTLEMENT_POLICY_MISMATCH— both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts divergeSETTLEMENT_GUARANTEE_UNKNOWN— the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision)
In plain words. Where they differ: both venues publish settlement policy, but the published texts diverge; the venue does not publish enough settlement policy to prove what happens in every branch (missing data, cancellation, revision). Kalshi's fine print: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish; the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome. In an ordinary outcome both contracts pay the same. The difference shows up only in the unusual case those gaps describe — a delayed release, a canceled event, a revised number — which is exactly when a paired position stops being one bet.
The Polymarket leg here is the global venue, which US accounts cannot trade; it is shown for the rules comparison only.
| Venue | Contract | YES price | Taker fee at that price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25 | 1¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Polymarket (global) | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? polymarket_global:2589811 | 0¢ | set per market |
YES price is the best ask at the last check. Fees use each venue's published taker formula at that price — see the fee calculator for any price.
Capital lock-up: about 100.3 days until the later of the two contracts settles.
Kalshi fine-print grade: C (65/100)
−20 FAMILY_POLICY_INCOMPLETE: the rules omit terms this contract family requires — the measurement basis, the revision rule, or the missing-release branch its peers publish
−15 MISSING_REVISION_POLICY: the rules never say whether a later revision of the underlying number changes the outcome
What Kalshi publishes
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What Polymarket publishes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.